Achilles and the Tortoise

One preliminary takeaway from the India Pakistani war is that Chinese weaponry showed themselves much better than expected, appearing to be more than a match to the manifold more expensive Western (& Russian) analogues.

What is particularly impressive is that it is Chinese aircraft that seems to have beaten expectations. The thing with the aircraft industry is that it may easily be the most demanding and technologically complex manufacturing industry that exists on the planet Earth. In this regard, it must be a particularly difficult field for a new industrial power to even enter, let alone to compete with the old industrial powers.

At this point it looks that the balance of technological capability is gradually turning in favour of China. Previously an underdeveloped producer, it is rapidly catching up with the old industrial powers of the West.

Many or most may be imagining this process in terms of a linear race:

Chinese Achilles running faster and gradually catching up with the Western tortoise

That is not wrong, in a sense. And yet, I feel that this linear race model is too simplistic, and misrepresents the nature of the process.

So, let me give you another one.

Please keep in mind that the text below summarises my preliminary thoughts on the issue and must be considered more as an invitation to conversation rather than any hard, solid rock conclusions.