On the Alaska Summit

There is a great symbolism in these negotiations, and a great figure of omission. And that figure is China

Let me give you a model for what is happening, why the US and Russia may feel they absolutely need to reapproach, and why it may still not work out in the end

First. The Battle Royal is not going to be between the US and Russia

(or the US and Iran, or whatever)

It going to be between the US and China

Between the old world hegemon and the new rising contender¹

That is what everyone is expecting

Second. Results of the contest are shady and unclear. The US, overall, are far from being certain in their final victory

Third. Position of Russia, in a conflict, may play a defining role

That is not because of the power of the Russian conventional army (overall, weak and inadequate), but because of the size of the Russian nuclear arsenal

Even if never employed in reality, that still serves as a major factor of deterrence, tying the hands of anyone it is potentially directed against, and freeing the hands of their adversary. Basically, if one side of the conflict has a massive advantage in the nuclear arsenal + delivery capacity, that puts a major constraint on how far their opponents can escalate

All of that means the US have a real incentive to reapproach with Russia, and pull it on their side

On the first hand it all sounds and looks great

The US, of course, wants to have Russia on their side. Or, at least, many in the US do

Now Russia, on the first glance, seems to want the same

All the talks about its supposed orientation towards the Global South are 100% fake, with not even an inch of truth or sincerity behind. Russia, of course, hates and despises the Global South, just as much as the Ukrainians do². There is no doubt that under the normal circumstances Russia would love to integrate into the existing Western club, and would prefer alliance with the US over literally another alliance.

Right now Russia is signalling its readiness to abandon all the anti-imperialist pretence and to switch to the US side the moment it feels the US will accept it

Now why it may still not work out

It is true that Russia in fact feels much greater proximity to the West than to any coloured nation. It is true that joining “the club” has been its dream and aspiration for decades, openly stated and manifested in the 2000s

BUT

Back in time, that came without a price. Back in time, the US alliance seemed to be just advantages with hardly any cost at all. Pure benefits all around

Now, however, it is different

Now it comes with the cost of participating in what Russia expects to become a world war against the rising global hegemon

And nothing I hear from Russia confirms its willingness to do just that

Based on what I hear, I can make an educated guess of what Putin’s close circle is thinking

They are thinking:

“The US want to use us against China the same manner they used Ukraine against us”

With an implication that it would be super stupid for Russia to accede to that. Good deal for the US, bad deal for us

Not a good idea

So, basically, while the cultural affinity and the considerations of prestige, and of status, and of racism drive Russia to accept the US alliance as the peak of all dreams and aspirations, the cold calculations turn out differently

Rational calculations show that Russia will do much better as a wise monkey observing two tigers tearing each other into pieces. Basically, Russia wants to be a non alignment power, rather than side with any contender for the global hegemony

That means, we are having a problem here

There is objectively a conflict of interest, and I am not sure whether these two will be able to work it through

The US may want Russia to fight China, while Russia has zero willingness to do that³

There is also a second consideration here

The Russian Ukrainian war may seem like a pure benefit for the US in many respects, yet it is a liability in one major and very important one. Basically, the Russian-Ukrainian war shows that being the US ally sucks. Like really, unironically sucks the balls

Look at Vietnam. For years, it had been taking a firmly pro-US and anti-China stance, on the international stage, openly teasing and alienating its northern neighbour. It all stopped after 2022. Now they are holding parades with the PLA troops, opening monuments to the Chinese volunteers who died in Vietnam fighting Americans.

Although I do not have any inside information on what the Vietnamese leadership is thinking, I think I can make a guess. And the guess is:

“We do not want to become a second Ukraine”

From the Vietnamese perspective, Ukraine is a smaller country that alienated a much larger neighbour (just like us), hoping for the US help (again, like us)

Now what we are seeing is that their calculation was bad, and the deal they got was bad, and all they are getting is death, destruction and - quite likely - no future at all.

That sucks. We don’t want to be a second Ukraine

Nobody wants, really

That is - to my best understanding - what the East Asians neighbours of China (and not only Vietnam) are thinking right now

Basically, the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war has radically decreased the worth, and the desirability of the US alliance

All of that makes a potential alliance with Russia harder, and not easier

1. Notice, that it may never materialise in reality, never get into the hot phase. But that is exactly what everyone is expecting, and basing their calculations upon

2. If you want to have a realistic picture of what the Russians have in mind, listen to Ukrainians. The cultural gap in negligibly narrow, and the actual set of beliefs astonishingly alike, but the Ukrainians are much freer to speak it out. In Russia, if you get mouthy, the Big Daddy will hit you upon your head with a stick

3. It may very well be that the best leverage the US has to force it, is by massively exacerbating its position on the battlefields of Eastern Europe