Why did Putin invade Ukraine?

Question: Why did Putin decided to launch a full scale invasion?

Short answer: Because Poroshenko lost presidential elections to Zelensky

Long answer:

Foreign policy is overrated.

Foreign policy can be a means, but is almost never a goal. A goal almost invariably lies in the domain of domestic politics. Therefore, when analysing the foreign policy, we must first and foremost put it through the domestic politics test. We must ask ourselves:

What domestic goal does this foreign policy measure serve?

It is ignoring the true (= domestic) purposes of the foreign policy that makes the “realist” theory of international relations so very unrealistic. So called “realists” assume that the foreign policy is motivated by the foreign concerns, while the true rationales and true purposes are almost always domestic.

Foreign policy is but a domestic policy by other means

And the war is but a radical instrument of the domestic policy.

When did Putin start preparing for the war?

Before we put Putin’s invasion of Ukraine through the domestic politics test, let’s determine the timing of his decision. Although the full-scale invasion happened in 2022, the strategic decision to invade must have been taken earlier. How earlier though?

Our investigation indicates that the preparation for war almost certainly started in 2019.

Which means:

Putin started preparing for war straight after Zelenky’s election.

That allows us to formulate a working hypothesis. That is:

Putin started preparing for war because of Zelensky’s election.

It looks as if once Zelensky won presidency, Putin started plotting a forceful regime change in Ukraine. The preparation started in 2019, but was halted because of the covid and could fully resume almost two years later. In February 2022, Putin tried to execute his long-prepared invasion plan but failed. His failure to overthrow Zelensky’s government resulted in a protracted war, we are now all witnessing.

This will be the starting point for our further discussion.

Why did Putin want to overthrow Zelensky?

Let’s apply our domestic politics test. We are postulating that invading Ukraine Putin aimed to better secure his position at home.

(Which should be our basic assumption regarding any foreign policy decision)

We have also found that the decision to invade was almost certain taken straight after Zelenky’s election

(That we found empirically)

Then our question would be:

Why would Putin feel like he needs to overthrow Zelensky to better secure his position at home?

This is a good question actually. And that is because of two presidential candidates of 2019, Poroshenko and Zelensky, it was Poroshenko who looked and branded himself as vehemently anti-Russian.

Who is Poroshenko?

First and foremost, he is an oligarch. Best known as an owner of Roshen confectionery manufacturing group, he widely referred to as a Chocolate King (although he has controlled many other businesses as well).

The Chocolate King

Second, he is a career politician and an administrator. For many years he served as:

The Member of Parliament

The Secretary of Security Council

The Chairman of the Central Bank

The Minister for Foreign Affairs

The Minister for Economic Development

2009. The Minister for Foreign Affairs Poroshenko takes part in the Russian-Ukrainian interstate commission. He sits to the left hand of Prime Minister Timoshenko

After the overthrowal of Yanukovich, his former Minister for Economic affairs Poroshenko was elected as the President of Ukraine.

Elected as a President and inheriting the simmering war in Donbass, Poroshenko adopted a very anti-Russian stance.

He started the massive military buildup

He fought against the Russian proxies in the Donbass

He stopped (= radically decreased), the military collaboration with Russia, effectively disrupting the unity of what used to be the Soviet military industrial complex.

He rejected all the Russian linguistic and cultural demands in Ukraine.

He rehabilitated the Ukrainian Rebel Army that fought with the USSR in the WWII (and that Russia sees as “Nazi”)

He broke with the Russian Church, establishing the ecclesiastical autonomy of Ukraine

Not only did Poroshenko seek the integration with NATO. He added the course on the NATO integration into the Constitution of Ukraine. As he explained to the Parliament, he aimed to cement the irreversibility of this change.

In 2019, the vehemently and outspokenly anti Russian Poroshenko loses elections to pro-appeasement, pro-deescalation and pro compromise candidate Zelensky.

That is when Russia starts preparing for war

At first, this thought may look absurd, unimaginable

Poroshenko was a hawk

Zelensky was a dove

That’s how they looked, talked and presented themselves

Their electoral campaigns were based upon presenting themselves as a hawk and a dove respectively

Poroshenko’s campaign slogan:

Army, language, faith

Army is on the first place

Poroshenko showed himself as a patriotic, pro-war, pro-national defense candidate

A hawk

Zelensky, presented himself as an exact opposite

A dove. No. that would be an understatement

He framed himself as an ultra-dove, as an extreme dove, as a borderline traitorous dove