Im unsure if he put it in terms like this: the Boomers dying out.
9/11 made USA hard set against Muslims in general. People supported 2003 Iraq invasion because they saw little difference in Al Qaeda and any Middle East nation that didn't love USA. In 01-02 Israel steamrolled west bank massacre in jenin and nobody in America paid any attention or gave a shit, at all.
Itll take a few generations for that to be forgotten, for enough to not be scarred by fear outrage bitterness towards entire region. Bush could have invaded Iraq AND iran and have support in 03. Still won re election in 04 when shit hit the fan and it was a quagmire already.
And, forget any of that change of israel policy if a large scale terror attack on US soil were to recur.
Iran wouldn't order it; but terrorism is stupid. Al Qaeda's whole stupid mission was to provoke US bombing invasions all over islamic world. In order to unite 1 Bn Muslims. The deaths and suffering and burning alive and maiming of the millions of Muslims directly due to their actions wasn't a problem at all. The suffering would be so disproportionate to that side it's Inhuman insanity. Everyone should be happy to be a martyr!
Except Osama and the leaders pushing these idiots to their deaths hoping for megadeaths of muslim civilians by US military. They were hidden, never within hundreds of miles of the gun barrels of US armed forces. ((Until a predator drone or seal team 6 surprised them))
So that's what I mean. Terrorism is stupid; targeting civilians for death in order to create fear never worked to achieve anything desireable by those who ordered them.
Look at Hamas. The destruction of gaza by IDF was the point. Mission accomplished ! 50K dead civilians!
Either 11 happens or Israel goes through the following steps:
(1) global isolation because it's a vicious oppressor state like South Africa and everyone thinks this is gross, and they don't have anything the rest of the world actually *needs*
(2) collapse of economy because it's dependent on foreign trade
(3) Civil war as people cast blame about the economic collapse and isolation
They have lost world public opinion and can't regain it without enfranchising the subject population. As soon as they lose the mindless US backing, which is inevitable at this point, these are the next three steps
Didn't happen in North Korea, but that's an oddity -- I don't see anyone ready to bail Israel out the way China has been continuously bailing out North Korea (for reasons which remain slightly obscure; the best assessment I've found is that they like to use North Korea for cheap labor and don't want the refugees who would happen if the regime collapsed). The US was bailing out Israel for generations but it is clearly going to stop now that it's extremely unpopular and getting more unpopular.
This is essentially Mearsheimer's position, correct?
Im unsure if he put it in terms like this: the Boomers dying out.
9/11 made USA hard set against Muslims in general. People supported 2003 Iraq invasion because they saw little difference in Al Qaeda and any Middle East nation that didn't love USA. In 01-02 Israel steamrolled west bank massacre in jenin and nobody in America paid any attention or gave a shit, at all.
Itll take a few generations for that to be forgotten, for enough to not be scarred by fear outrage bitterness towards entire region. Bush could have invaded Iraq AND iran and have support in 03. Still won re election in 04 when shit hit the fan and it was a quagmire already.
And, forget any of that change of israel policy if a large scale terror attack on US soil were to recur.
Iran is not so stupid as to cement USA public opinion to a "wartime President" through a domestic terror attack
But certainly the GOP pupils of the Putin playbook in Chechnya are smart enough to stage an "Iranian" provocation to effect exactly that cement.
That's the entire purpose of this charade: to make resistance to Trump treasonous.
Iran wouldn't order it; but terrorism is stupid. Al Qaeda's whole stupid mission was to provoke US bombing invasions all over islamic world. In order to unite 1 Bn Muslims. The deaths and suffering and burning alive and maiming of the millions of Muslims directly due to their actions wasn't a problem at all. The suffering would be so disproportionate to that side it's Inhuman insanity. Everyone should be happy to be a martyr!
Except Osama and the leaders pushing these idiots to their deaths hoping for megadeaths of muslim civilians by US military. They were hidden, never within hundreds of miles of the gun barrels of US armed forces. ((Until a predator drone or seal team 6 surprised them))
So that's what I mean. Terrorism is stupid; targeting civilians for death in order to create fear never worked to achieve anything desireable by those who ordered them.
Look at Hamas. The destruction of gaza by IDF was the point. Mission accomplished ! 50K dead civilians!
Points #11 and #12 ... a lot of good sense there.
11 is not going to happen, not in the next couple of generations.
12, imho, must happen for Israel to survive in the long run ("necessity is the morher of inventiveness")
Either 11 happens or Israel goes through the following steps:
(1) global isolation because it's a vicious oppressor state like South Africa and everyone thinks this is gross, and they don't have anything the rest of the world actually *needs*
(2) collapse of economy because it's dependent on foreign trade
(3) Civil war as people cast blame about the economic collapse and isolation
They have lost world public opinion and can't regain it without enfranchising the subject population. As soon as they lose the mindless US backing, which is inevitable at this point, these are the next three steps
Didn't happen in North Korea, but that's an oddity -- I don't see anyone ready to bail Israel out the way China has been continuously bailing out North Korea (for reasons which remain slightly obscure; the best assessment I've found is that they like to use North Korea for cheap labor and don't want the refugees who would happen if the regime collapsed). The US was bailing out Israel for generations but it is clearly going to stop now that it's extremely unpopular and getting more unpopular.