Why has Russia been so politically stable?

The question that puzzled many. Why has Russia been so internally stable, in spite of the humiliating military defeats, the preparedness and confusion early in this war, and the unprecedentedly wide sanction regimes?

Despite all of that, Putin's regime stands as strong as it was¹.

The question is why.

Let's recall what we have learnt about the post-Soviet planning.

First thing you need to know is that the post-Soviets never take interests, or stance of the other side remotely into their consideration. They set their own agenda (“what we want”) and try to impose it onto the other side, forcefully. That is their plan A.

Another thing you need to know is that they never have a plan B in case their plan A goes wrong.

Now this fully applies to the pro-Ukrainian (and more broadly, Western) strategy towards Russia.

The strategy can be summarised as inflicting (or promising to inflict) one thousand great punishments, broadly and indiscriminately in a hope that it would undermine the regime.

For the most part, it buttressed it.

Let me give you one example, which - based on what I know - made a huuuuuuge impression on the Russian ruling class.

Early in this war, two oligarchs - rich, powerful, very close to Putin - fled from Moscow to a certain Western country.

There they had been publicly humiliated, subject to the petty & irritating treatment, finding themselves in a powerless, vulnerable position (effectively, under the house arrest). One of them tried to remove the sanctions offering 1 billion $ payment, but to no avail.

So, eventually they just returned to Russia.

Nothing bad has happened to them, really. When asked about these two, Putin responded that Russian citizens can leave and return whenever they want. However, he said, if they committed any crimes, they will have to answer for that just like anyone.

It is, of course, a diplomatic and uninformative formula. Still, it shows that their status in the hierarchy will, henceforth, be lower. Much, much lower. Their loyalty has been compromised, their relationships with the sovereign worsened. They won't have the same power anymore, nor will they enjoy the same protection.

Sounds like a bad deal, frankly speaking

And still they returned

Why?

Because they had no other option.

Now, based on what I know, their return made a massive impression on the ruling elite. The thing with the rich & powerful is that they don't see the commonfolk as their peers (or even fully human) and don't empathise with them very much. But they certainly do with other rich and powerful. And when the other rich and powerful actually try fleeing and then return - with an obvious decrease in status - that certainly sends a message to the ruling elites.

In fact, making a point to the elite circles must have been Putin's intention, in the first place. What kind of message he is sending?

You don't like staying at my court? Not a problem at all. There's the door

You are absolutely free to leave

The reason you stay with me, is not that I force, but that you have nowhere else to go.

Like you could try, of course, and then, after trying to fit here and there…

You will eventually return to me, to sit by my leg

Now lower than before

Because again, you have nowhere else to go

What impression does it make on the rich and powerful?