1. Russia makes more weaponry than its enemies. If nothing is done about its military production, Russia will likely win this war 2. Establishing the new rule of politics: Always bet against the US allies 3. That will have the absolutely destructive effect on the US policy and standing in Asia
I don’t think its our political elites don’t have the will, its that they are constrained politically. But its a great point about Western elites in general & low curiosity. Absolutely. It is this dynamic that has allowed for our elections to be so exploited by foreign influence.
Much of our politics have been captured by populists under the influence of the Kremlin. Since the populists can de facto veto military aid and also regurgitate the Kremlin’s propaganda, it maybe appears that its the political elites balking. But it seems from on the inside, to me at least, Russia is winning informational and political warfare, and Western elites are losing control of our governance. If Biden and gang overextended, the populists will win power and that will be how Russia wins this conflict. My 0.02 anyway.
Given the obvious military might of South Korea, and the remilitarization of Japan, I doubt your political analysis of Taiwan. Surely Taiwan could simply supply itself from South Korea and Japan? If China attacked South Korea, South Korea would certainly fight on forever no matter how powerful China was. (See Vietnam.) Taiwan has already been actively preparing its own defenses under the assumption that it can't depend on the US.
China's government will look inward, as it's facing endless climate disasters within its internationally recognized borders. It might try to grab territory from the collapsing Russian Empire. Maybe the Chinese leadership would pick a fight with Taiwan, out of habit, but they'd lose *even if Taiwan had no US support* -- Taiwan has very much set up very specifically to destroy any air or sea invasion attempts, and you can't get there by land.
The Chinese empire is an anachronism which looks liable to fall apart at any time, much like the Russian and the American. These sorts of empires don't appear to be stable in the current social and technological state.
I don't think Russia can win in Ukraine anyway because I'm watching the Russian government dig into 1950s stockpiles and import from North Korea and Iran. I don't think Russia actually *can* make more weaponry than its enemies -- as long as Poland supports Ukraine and South Korea supplies Poland. Perun's deep dives into Russian military production don't indicate high production capacity compared to South Korea, let alone South Korea plus anyone else.
The question of why Russia is unable to match South Korean production capacity is one you have actually explained quite well in the past.
I don’t think its our political elites don’t have the will, its that they are constrained politically. But its a great point about Western elites in general & low curiosity. Absolutely. It is this dynamic that has allowed for our elections to be so exploited by foreign influence.
Much of our politics have been captured by populists under the influence of the Kremlin. Since the populists can de facto veto military aid and also regurgitate the Kremlin’s propaganda, it maybe appears that its the political elites balking. But it seems from on the inside, to me at least, Russia is winning informational and political warfare, and Western elites are losing control of our governance. If Biden and gang overextended, the populists will win power and that will be how Russia wins this conflict. My 0.02 anyway.
Thanks for the valuable insights
Given the obvious military might of South Korea, and the remilitarization of Japan, I doubt your political analysis of Taiwan. Surely Taiwan could simply supply itself from South Korea and Japan? If China attacked South Korea, South Korea would certainly fight on forever no matter how powerful China was. (See Vietnam.) Taiwan has already been actively preparing its own defenses under the assumption that it can't depend on the US.
China's government will look inward, as it's facing endless climate disasters within its internationally recognized borders. It might try to grab territory from the collapsing Russian Empire. Maybe the Chinese leadership would pick a fight with Taiwan, out of habit, but they'd lose *even if Taiwan had no US support* -- Taiwan has very much set up very specifically to destroy any air or sea invasion attempts, and you can't get there by land.
The Chinese empire is an anachronism which looks liable to fall apart at any time, much like the Russian and the American. These sorts of empires don't appear to be stable in the current social and technological state.
I don't think Russia can win in Ukraine anyway because I'm watching the Russian government dig into 1950s stockpiles and import from North Korea and Iran. I don't think Russia actually *can* make more weaponry than its enemies -- as long as Poland supports Ukraine and South Korea supplies Poland. Perun's deep dives into Russian military production don't indicate high production capacity compared to South Korea, let alone South Korea plus anyone else.
The question of why Russia is unable to match South Korean production capacity is one you have actually explained quite well in the past.